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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd