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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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