Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
